2017年7月9日 星期日

I go to school by bike: a Short Note to My Portfolio (sorry for my broken English)

  • global asset allocation: a mix of equity, bond & interest-generated asset, reits, commodity and other alternative
  • Rebalancing: rebalance the ratio of each asset class every month.
  • risk parity: credit to Ray Dalio, equity: debt ratio in the portfolio shouldn't be 50:50, 60:40 or decide by the age of owner. As the change of asset price in equity is larger than debt, debt should share a much larger percentage than equity in the portfolio in order to construct a risk parity portfolio. 
  • Remark: (ref to my 31/8/2016 note) R.D. suggested a portfolio with 30% equity, 40% Long-term US bond, 15% of Intermediate-term US bond, 7.5% of Gold and 7.5% of other commodities. I believe this is a good start to construct one's portfolio
  • Remark 2: (ref to the same page) my benchmark is an index with following allocation: 30% VTI, 45% TLT, 20% IEF, 2.5% GLD and 2.5% DBC
  • benchmark can also be an absolute fixed return like 12% a year (aim to double the portfolio in 6 years) or 7.5% (aim better return than HSEA/ HSEB)
  • 我認為要全局咁睇,個回報先有意思。1)唔少blogger 經常講自己邊隻幾多回報,但永遠唔提及買左幾大,佔成個本幾多比例,係無意思的。2)同時,回報係事後大家睇到的(如果佢地有如實寫出來),但過程當中的風險係睇唔到的。比如全倉做期權短倉坐足一年回報10% 唔洗接貨,同坐reit 10% 回報或者full paid 買樓租金回報2.5% 加7.5% 升值的回報,當中的風險就很不一樣。
  • 風險:好多人有對風險有唔同的定義。credit to Howard Marks
  • Marks: Risk is the probability of losing money, I mean, that's the main risk. There are other risks. There is the risk of falling short of your goals or your needs. There is the risk of being forced to sell at the – on a downward fluctuation and that interestingly is related to volatility, but volatility is not risk. Risk is the chance of losing money.
  • long-short strategy: sometime for pair trade- long and short different assets and bet their ratio in price narrow or widen. eg long 0200.SEHK and short MLCO.NASDAQ early this year. and sometime it is for other purposes: like short SPY to hedge US equity position and lower the market exposure; or short TLT and long bond/ interest-generated assets at the same time, short TLT could lower the interest rate risk for the portfolio and made this pair more like a carry trade.
  • leverage: i use leverage in my portfolio. i start my trading in equity market then forex market. so i get used to the leveraged position have some understanding about risk. Therefore, i know that i will not be very rich (by trading with tons of risk). Again, portfolio should be view in total: that's the total assets holding / total capital of you that matters. I'm puzzle every time i read something like "股票部分不做槓桿而債券/REIT的部分作兩倍槓桿"
  • transaction cost: i used budget broker- interactive brokers(IB). Lowering transaction cost does matter for me. same reason for passive investment/ using low-expenditure ratio ETF/ low interest-rate charging brokers. At the end of the day, it is the total return net of any costs(interest/ tax/ broker fee etc) involved does matter. Thus, keep your transaction cost low but maintain quality service received is a key. 
  • Here, i'm going to every asset class. start with those fewer people involved and talked about:
  • Forex balance: i borrow of SGD for Singapore Equity position and borrow JPY for Japanese equity position. Usually i just borrow the full amount of that currency. Remark, I don't think it is reasonable to borrow half SGD and half in HKD to buy Mapletree Greater China. When there's positive balance of HKD I switched them USD in order to lower the negative balance and interest payment. 
  • Price Action: beside IB account, I have a FXCM account to trade CFD of forex. My method to trade forex is purely price action- with no indicator on the chart. That is- the chart is clean with only candlestick. Time frame is usually weekly and go down to daily for in/out.
  • HKJC ball-horse fund: credit to poolhuner. IMO, result is good for double HaFu but bad for oversea horse. if you have no 半自動外掛, it is a time-consuming job. 
  • Bitcoin: i do own bitcoin but no alt. coin. It may goes to 7K-10K USD in the next top. Not recommend to buy any before mid- of Augest when the SegWit settled.  
  • Commodity: a simple play with ETF like DBC would do good. Currently holding: 鋁, 銅, 金CFD, 鈾ETF, 農產品ETF, 全餐ETF. Not recommend to buy 實金/實銀. It is not easy to keep 實銀 in good condition in HK. 
  • Risk arbitrage: i think the name risk arbitrage is stupid. Anyway, one can read wai gor blog for lots of M&A deal opportunity. Please be very careful when reading his blog! you are in headwind position if just read and copy his trade. Few people really understand those small/ nano- cap stocks recommend by him. 
  • Remark: 財演係報紙幫有心人寫一隻股大約收30-50萬。咁有無blogger 會收人錢推股呢?PS,i'm not certain that wai gor had do this(or not) before or after his gap-years long ago. 
  • Spinoff: credit to Joel Greenblatt. It is kind of good way to generate some return. example: YUMC and 利中。
  • Reit: Mapletree GGC and Lippo Malls are good. credit to 早月, i'm copying his idea in NRZ, CBL and WPG.
  • Bond, equity and other will be written (likely not XDD)

9 則留言:

  1. //30% VTI, 45% TLT, 20% IEF, 2.5% GLD and 2.5% DBC

    TLT 和 IEF 的withholding tax 應該可以退回.


    //唔少blogger 經常講自己邊隻幾多回報,但永遠唔提及買左幾大,佔成個本幾多比例,係無意思的。

    嘻嘻, 好彩我基本上每個組合同各自比例都有寫出來啫!

    //volatility is not risk. Risk is the chance of losing money.

    所以話, downside valatility 先至係 risk, upside 唔係 risk.

    1. //所以話, downside valatility 先至係 risk, upside 唔係 risk.
      某些日子後,學術界又搞另一個“改良”的TERM --索天奴,出黎量化包down 唔包up 的volatility. 但係依然是度價格變動。而唔係價格可能出現的變動。ref to N.N. Taleb 那一個有千個子彈窿的俄羅斯輪盤遊戲。個粒未射出黎的子彈要點量度先考工夫。

      //TLT 和 IEF 的withholding tax 應該可以退回.
      只持有短倉,每個月全數俾緊派息中. 有無方法利用到異形呢點俾少D 呢?

      //嘻嘻, 好彩我基本上每個組合同各自比例都有寫出來啫!
      你都算均真個幾個啦。大師幾個月後見YUMC 大升就話自己大注咁買(好似係)
      我考慮緊將IB 個RAW RECORD 放上網俾人DOWN。

    2. 其實買左幾大和比例一樣重要,如組合是一百萬和一億對心理壓力和市場深度的需求不同,自己的搵錢能力亦影響機會成本,一萬月薪和十萬就大有不同,有時可能回報率好像賺好多,但原來一兩個月人工就可以搵番都係非常小注。

  2. //HKJC ball-horse

    1. 其實外掛的自動下單係乜野原理?
      ball-horse fund 跑埋琴日最後一場海外馬(全輸6場=.=) 後以30030.5 過終點。(10000 起家)
      見下圖的equity curve, 比較靚的係穿10K 的水底時間很少,很易過。若然一開波來一次池兄的四十場不勝,相信會皮已收 XD

    2. 自動化
      係IT人的傑作。半自動係以外掛macro根據計算結果控制馬會網頁啲掣提交注碼,但不能控制投注區,登入ac同最後確定落注那下要用人手。全自動的原理池某都唔明,池某收到的係一個exe file,開著部機run下個file就乜都唔使理。


      double HaFu

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