2017年8月10日 星期四

治癌的另類療法?不了。

最近有位朋友的老婆在治癌的過程中死去,本來亦沒需要寫出來,但係畢竟佢的死可能因為唔正確的想法及選擇而提早,而且事件起因而是在網絡上發生的關係,最後修改一下就決定發佈。

重要的事情除左講三次之外,也可以一開頭就清楚講出來,免生誤會:呢篇講的唔係另一位老婆岩岩因癌病去逝的網友,想抽水呀/講是非呀/看圖/看文字作文的/想幫拖想擦好感度的唔該慳翻啖氣。

拿,件事簡單講就係有個人的老婆有左癌病,咁原本個老公都好好地用「正統」西方醫學院的方法去醫。但正係事情無立即好轉的時候,個老公真係連黃大仙都去問埋。(1)然後,有一日佢見到(網上?)朋友叫佢老婆去試下香港某處的一D 另類療法,兼又有唔少人附和話不如一試。其實另類療法都有唔少,佢去見的係屬於一種自然療法。詳細係點樣療就唔詳細講了。我跳住黎講啦-

講結果:佢老婆死左。佢地屋企人告緊個個「賣」另類療法療程的醫生。叫做報左警,搵左專業人士搞緊。但大家估計告得入機會不大,甚至連停牌停業都唔洗。

重點有幾個,希望有緣睇到呢篇文的人可以自己諗諗,唔好見到其他人講點得點得就信(咁似講緊其他範疇的野?):
  • 有人用西方醫學院正統方法醫好,亦有人醫唔好。有人完全唔食藥亦有案例好返,當然亦有人死。更甚者,如果有人肯去試,我相信大量只飲符水的患者當中,也有一些會好返,當然也有一部份會死去。
  • 大部份(如非絕大部份)的另類療法的效果也沒有經過科學方法檢測,而證明有顯注效果。甚至乎有些方法連做過檢測的文獻也沒有。如果硬係要問底線係邊?咁雙盲可以係其一。
  • 有部份另類療法會要求試用者停用其他藥物。如果有呢個情況,咁就要諗真D。(2) 而今次的主角亦正好停左藥去試呢種治癌的另類療法
  • 呢個係乜野玩法?假想有人宣稱有種新人類大法,每天空肚食早餐,只要每天天明前去野外地方吸收天地靈氣作早餐用,自然會有不藥而癒,但講到明同時食其他藥會無效果,兼要你簽下自願書講明自己只同一時間用上新人類大法作治療。咁假設有100 個人黎試呢種新人類,同後有廿個人好返,大師就可以對外講有唔少例子係只同一時間用佢的新人類大法就已經醫好癌病。哇,咁教人呢種大法仲唔發過做BLOGGER Youtuber?
  • 如果你或者身邊的人因為見到有遵從西方醫學而醫唔好的例子,又應否直接去幫襯另類療法甚或至各種東南亞/非洲巫醫呢?
另外,我花幾個鐘頭寫呢篇文為乜?我不禁諗:呢篇文對其他人的益處/效果係咪會好過D 半分鐘打一兩行字的網上留言?網上的野究竟有幾多真幾多流?

歡迎各位有治癌或其他病的另類療法經驗的朋友留言。

/呢篇寫得唔好,中間有段寫得不通順,但沒心情修改,請自行同情地理解吧/

(1):真人真事,照講。非抽水。主要係想形容佢當時的絕望同六神無主,因為佢老婆係天主教徒,佢中學時亦係讀教會學校。
(2):有一位親人因而突然中風。我認為賣藥水9人都算,叫人停左食醫生開要長期服用的藥真係CLS。

2017年8月4日 星期五

我最期待的畫面出現了[10AUG17更新]

等睇各位BLOGGER 點講RBS 優先股贖回~~~

事緣盤前RBS 出左group announcement. (搵埋俾你要睇邊頁:P105/135)RBS 股價升而開市不久兩隻優先股NW PRC 同RBS PRF 就不斷跌。

睇完咁姐係呢兩隻優先股有無份?IB TWS double click 就無好似其他證券咁出現ISIN。相關資料可以係RBS 官網呢度查到:
http://www.investors.rbs.com/fixed-income-investors/unsecured-securities-documentation/innovative-tier-1.aspx
[NW PRC] 12,000,000 Non-cumulative Dollar Preference Shares, Series C 08/04/1997 US6385398820
[RBS PRF] US$200,000,000 Non-cumulative Dollar Preference Shares, Series F 06/03/1997 US7800978048



突然大跌而普通股又無反應,而同時其他優先股又無特別,真係比較大可能係要贖回。
無論如何,今次係好好的事件令各位死跟BLOGGER 買野的人好好檢視自己的組合風險。之後,就是期待BLOGGER 們會點講了~~

2017年7月17日 星期一

Callable Bond being called: Reason why need to buy below par/ callable price

VRXCN@OTC has announced it will become subject to a full call effective 20170815.
7 JUL 2017: bought 4K at 101, 6.75% coupon, next call 100 at 15 AUG 2017.

P/L is around: -101 +100 -commission + coupon =~ (1/2%) in a month.

added one more rule into my list when buying bond:

  • price < MIN(par, callable price)

2017年7月9日 星期日

I go to school by bike: a Short Note to My Portfolio (sorry for my broken English)


  • global asset allocation: a mix of equity, bond & interest-generated asset, reits, commodity and other alternative
  • Rebalancing: rebalance the ratio of each asset class every month.
  • risk parity: credit to Ray Dalio, equity: debt ratio in the portfolio shouldn't be 50:50, 60:40 or decide by the age of owner. As the change of asset price in equity is larger than debt, debt should share a much larger percentage than equity in the portfolio in order to construct a risk parity portfolio. 
  • Remark: (ref to my 31/8/2016 note) R.D. suggested a portfolio with 30% equity, 40% Long-term US bond, 15% of Intermediate-term US bond, 7.5% of Gold and 7.5% of other commodities. I believe this is a good start to construct one's portfolio
  • Remark 2: (ref to the same page) my benchmark is an index with following allocation: 30% VTI, 45% TLT, 20% IEF, 2.5% GLD and 2.5% DBC
  • benchmark can also be an absolute fixed return like 12% a year (aim to double the portfolio in 6 years) or 7.5% (aim better return than HSEA/ HSEB)
  • 我認為要全局咁睇,個回報先有意思。1)唔少blogger 經常講自己邊隻幾多回報,但永遠唔提及買左幾大,佔成個本幾多比例,係無意思的。2)同時,回報係事後大家睇到的(如果佢地有如實寫出來),但過程當中的風險係睇唔到的。比如全倉做期權短倉坐足一年回報10% 唔洗接貨,同坐reit 10% 回報或者full paid 買樓租金回報2.5% 加7.5% 升值的回報,當中的風險就很不一樣。
  • 風險:好多人有對風險有唔同的定義。credit to Howard Marks
  • Marks: Risk is the probability of losing money, I mean, that's the main risk. There are other risks. There is the risk of falling short of your goals or your needs. There is the risk of being forced to sell at the – on a downward fluctuation and that interestingly is related to volatility, but volatility is not risk. Risk is the chance of losing money.
  • long-short strategy: sometime for pair trade- long and short different assets and bet their ratio in price narrow or widen. eg long 0200.SEHK and short MLCO.NASDAQ early this year. and sometime it is for other purposes: like short SPY to hedge US equity position and lower the market exposure; or short TLT and long bond/ interest-generated assets at the same time, short TLT could lower the interest rate risk for the portfolio and made this pair more like a carry trade.
  • leverage: i use leverage in my portfolio. i start my trading in equity market then forex market. so i get used to the leveraged position have some understanding about risk. Therefore, i know that i will not be very rich (by trading with tons of risk). Again, portfolio should be view in total: that's the total assets holding / total capital of you that matters. I'm puzzle every time i read something like "股票部分不做槓桿而債券/REIT的部分作兩倍槓桿"
  • transaction cost: i used budget broker- interactive brokers(IB). Lowering transaction cost does matter for me. same reason for passive investment/ using low-expenditure ratio ETF/ low interest-rate charging brokers. At the end of the day, it is the total return net of any costs(interest/ tax/ broker fee etc) involved does matter. Thus, keep your transaction cost low but maintain quality service received is a key. 
  • Here, i'm going to every asset class. start with those fewer people involved and talked about:
  • Forex balance: i borrow of SGD for Singapore Equity position and borrow JPY for Japanese equity position. Usually i just borrow the full amount of that currency. Remark, I don't think it is reasonable to borrow half SGD and half in HKD to buy Mapletree Greater China. When there's positive balance of HKD I switched them USD in order to lower the negative balance and interest payment. 
  • Price Action: beside IB account, I have a FXCM account to trade CFD of forex. My method to trade forex is purely price action- with no indicator on the chart. That is- the chart is clean with only candlestick. Time frame is usually weekly and go down to daily for in/out.
  • HKJC ball-horse fund: credit to poolhuner. IMO, result is good for double HaFu but bad for oversea horse. if you have no 半自動外掛, it is a time-consuming job. 
  • Bitcoin: i do own bitcoin but no alt. coin. It may goes to 7K-10K USD in the next top. Not recommend to buy any before mid- of Augest when the SegWit settled.  
  • Commodity: a simple play with ETF like DBC would do good. Currently holding: 鋁, 銅, 金CFD, 鈾ETF, 農產品ETF, 全餐ETF. Not recommend to buy 實金/實銀. It is not easy to keep 實銀 in good condition in HK. 
  • Risk arbitrage: i think the name risk arbitrage is stupid. Anyway, one can read wai gor blog for lots of M&A deal opportunity. Please be very careful when reading his blog! you are in headwind position if just read and copy his trade. Few people really understand those small/ nano- cap stocks recommend by him. 
  • Remark: 財演係報紙幫有心人寫一隻股大約收30-50萬。咁有無blogger 會收人錢推股呢?PS,i'm not certain that wai gor had do this(or not) before or after his gap-years long ago. 
  • Spinoff: credit to Joel Greenblatt. It is kind of good way to generate some return. example: YUMC and 利中。
  • Reit: Mapletree GGC and Lippo Malls are good. credit to 早月, i'm copying his idea in NRZ, CBL and WPG.
  • Bond, equity and other will be written (likely not XDD)