Callable Bond being called: Reason why need to buy below par/ callable price

VRXCN@OTC has announced it will become subject to a full call effective 20170815.

7 JUL 2017: bought 4K at 101, 6.75% coupon, next call 100 at 15 AUG 2017.

P/L is around: -101 +100 -commission + coupon =~ (1/2%) in a month.

added one more rule into my list when buying bond:

• price < MIN(par, callable price)

I go to school by bike: a Short Note to My Portfolio (sorry for my broken English)

• global asset allocation: a mix of equity, bond & interest-generated asset, reits, commodity and other alternative
• Rebalancing: rebalance the ratio of each asset class every month.
• risk parity: credit to Ray Dalio, equity: debt ratio in the portfolio shouldn't be 50:50, 60:40 or decide by the age of owner. As the change of asset price in equity is larger than debt, debt should share a much larger percentage than equity in the portfolio in order to construct a risk parity portfolio. 
• Remark: (ref to my 31/8/2016 note) R.D. suggested a portfolio with 30% equity, 40% Long-term US bond, 15% of Intermediate-term US bond, 7.5% of Gold and 7.5% of other commodities. I believe this is a good start to construct one's portfolio
• Remark 2: (ref to the same page) my benchmark is an index with following allocation: 30% VTI, 45% TLT, 20% IEF, 2.5% GLD and 2.5% DBC
• benchmark can also be an absolute fixed return like 12% a year (aim to double the portfolio in 6 years) or 7.5% (aim better return than HSEA/ HSEB)
• 我認為要全局咁睇，個回報先有意思。1）唔少blogger 經常講自己邊隻幾多回報，但永遠唔提及買左幾大，佔成個本幾多比例，係無意思的。2）同時，回報係事後大家睇到的（如果佢地有如實寫出來），但過程當中的風險係睇唔到的。比如全倉做期權短倉坐足一年回報10% 唔洗接貨，同坐reit 10% 回報或者full paid 買樓租金回報2.5% 加7.5% 升值的回報，當中的風險就很不一樣。
• 風險：好多人有對風險有唔同的定義。credit to Howard Marks

• Marks: Risk is the probability of losing money, I mean, that's the main risk. There are other risks. There is the risk of falling short of your goals or your needs. There is the risk of being forced to sell at the – on a downward fluctuation and that interestingly is related to volatility, but volatility is not risk. Risk is the chance of losing money.

• long-short strategy: sometime for pair trade- long and short different assets and bet their ratio in price narrow or widen. eg long 0200.SEHK and short MLCO.NASDAQ early this year. and sometime it is for other purposes: like short SPY to hedge US equity position and lower the market exposure; or short TLT and long bond/ interest-generated assets at the same time, short TLT could lower the interest rate risk for the portfolio and made this pair more like a carry trade.
• leverage: i use leverage in my portfolio. i start my trading in equity market then forex market. so i get used to the leveraged position have some understanding about risk. Therefore, i know that i will not be very rich (by trading with tons of risk). Again, portfolio should be view in total: that's the total assets holding / total capital of you that matters. I'm puzzle every time i read something like "股票部分不做槓桿而債券/REIT的部分作兩倍槓桿"
• transaction cost: i used budget broker- interactive brokers(IB). Lowering transaction cost does matter for me. same reason for passive investment/ using low-expenditure ratio ETF/ low interest-rate charging brokers. At the end of the day, it is the total return net of any costs(interest/ tax/ broker fee etc) involved does matter. Thus, keep your transaction cost low but maintain quality service received is a key. 
• Here, i'm going to every asset class. start with those fewer people involved and talked about:
• Forex balance: i borrow of SGD for Singapore Equity position and borrow JPY for Japanese equity position. Usually i just borrow the full amount of that currency. Remark, I don't think it is reasonable to borrow half SGD and half in HKD to buy Mapletree Greater China. When there's positive balance of HKD I switched them USD in order to lower the negative balance and interest payment. 
• Price Action: beside IB account, I have a FXCM account to trade CFD of forex. My method to trade forex is purely price action- with no indicator on the chart. That is- the chart is clean with only candlestick. Time frame is usually weekly and go down to daily for in/out.
• HKJC ball-horse fund: credit to poolhuner. IMO, result is good for double HaFu but bad for oversea horse. if you have no 半自動外掛, it is a time-consuming job. 
• Bitcoin: i do own bitcoin but no alt. coin. It may goes to 7K-10K USD in the next top. Not recommend to buy any before mid- of Augest when the SegWit settled.  
• Commodity: a simple play with ETF like DBC would do good. Currently holding: 鋁, 銅, 金CFD, 鈾ETF, 農產品ETF, 全餐ETF. Not recommend to buy 實金/實銀. It is not easy to keep 實銀 in good condition in HK. 
• Risk arbitrage: i think the name risk arbitrage is stupid. Anyway, one can read wai gor blog for lots of M&A deal opportunity. Please be very careful when reading his blog! you are in headwind position if just read and copy his trade. Few people really understand those small/ nano- cap stocks recommend by him. 
• Remark: 財演係報紙幫有心人寫一隻股大約收30-50萬。咁有無blogger 會收人錢推股呢？PS，i'm not certain that wai gor had do this(or not) before or after his gap-years long ago. 
• Spinoff: credit to Joel Greenblatt. It is kind of good way to generate some return. example: YUMC and 利中。
• Reit: Mapletree GGC and Lippo Malls are good. credit to 早月, i'm copying his idea in NRZ, CBL and WPG.
• Bond, equity and other will be written (likely not XDD)

HSBC 出新野對 HSEA/ HSEB 有無影響？

新野：3000M，6%，trading at 101.75/102.05

FY2016有的特別股：

BLOG 界斷9估系列之一 HKMA 終身年金計劃

AAA[1]

其實要公共年金的年回報率在數字上增長很容易 － 在最短的時間內過身就可以。請容許我做個刻薄的假設，假如投保人在投保的第二個月過身，後人可拿回105萬港元，年回報率是50000/1000000*12，即年息60%。又假如投保人在投保的第二天立即過身，後人依舊可拿回105萬港元，年回報率是50000/1000000*365，即年息1825%！

AAA[2]

精明大使：。。。我留意到這個計劃設有105%身故保障，是否代表投保人離世後，遺產繼承人就可以馬上收回投保本金加5%的金額？

Raymond：按揭證券公司的身故保障是保證投保人或後人會收取每月年金總額不少於保費的105%。以一位65歲男性投保人投保100萬為例，假設每月發放5,800元年金（按現時估計的最高內部回報率4%計算），我們會保證向他支付不少於182個月（15年），總額等如105萬元的年金。當然，投保人在15年後仍然可收取每月5,800元，直至百年歸老。但假如他在收足182期之前身故，後人可繼續領取餘下期數的每月年金，直至第182期。

精明大使：如果投保人急需資金，可否馬上一筆過領取餘下年金？ 

Raymond：投保人可以退保，我們會以折算率計算將未派出每月年金期數變換為一筆過的退保價值。當然，投保人愈遲退保，已收取年金金額就愈多，餘下的退保價值便愈低。另一點要注意的就是反映時間值的折讓。愈早退保，餘下未收取年金期數雖然愈多，但要一筆過折算為現金價值，會出現較大折讓的情況，原則上愈早退保，折讓愈大，兩者相加（已收取年金加上一筆過的現金價值）帳面上有可能會出現不足105%，或甚至低於已繳保費的情況。這一點非常重要，在購買年金產品前市民應小心考慮清楚。

精明大使：那麼投保人身故後其後人想馬上一筆過領取餘下年金，又如何計算？ 

Raymond：這和前面提及投保人提早退保的原則一樣，同樣會以折算率計算。

AAA

其他小問題例如無考慮time value of money 等比不上錯估投保人身故時可即時收回的現值及其回報率（以及影響其後與之的比較），故只舉一例，不全部指出。

不止如此，最「唔著數」情況下，投保人平均年回報率只有50000/1000000/15=0.33%，年回報率很低。但其實就算投保人長命百歲，年回報率也只有(5800*12*35-1000000)/1000000/35=4.1%，其實也不算很高。

AAA[3]借用公式：

AAA[4]

一九七一年至二零一六年男性及女性出生時平均預期壽命 

在過去四十六年，男性及女性出生時平均預期壽命持續增長。由一九七一年男性的67.8歲及女性的75.3歲，至二零一六年分別上升至81.3#歲及87.3#歲。

[1]明益你的公共年金計劃，風中追風，尋找財自生活之途@懶系投資法，28APR2017：
http://laxinvest.blogspot.hk/2017/04/blog-post_28.html

[2]終身年金計劃，精明大使，匯思，9MAY2017：
http://www.hkma.gov.hk/chi/key-information/insight/20170509.shtml

[3]新聞雜評（一百四十九），不敗的魔術師，魔術師的伊謝爾倫日記，14APR2017：
https://magicianyang.blogspot.hk/2017/04/blog-post_14.html

[4]衞生防護中心：
http://www.chp.gov.hk/tc/data/4/10/27/111.html

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